What the US midterm elections mean for climate progress

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People across the United States voted in record numbers in last week’s incredibly consequential election, which completely changed the makeup of Congress for its new term beginning in January 2027. The success of our electoral processes, still ongoing, should not be taken for granted. It is a victory for democracy when millions of citizens peacefully demand their right to a government of, by and for the people.

Will the Trump administration recognize voters’ repudiation of its destructive agenda and work cooperatively with this new Congress? That remains to be seen and I’m not going to hold my breath. But there is no doubt that the change in Congress has significant implications for the administration’s ability to continue pushing its authoritarian and anti-science agenda, including on climate and clean energy issues.

Climate change and clean energy are pocket issues.

Concerns about energy affordability, opposition to the proliferation of data centers, and anger at corruption and extreme economic inequality were undoubtedly driving factors in how people voted. While not all of them explicitly mentioned climate change as a top issue (although many placed it in the top three), its fingerprints are on all of the issues that most voters did mention in the polls.

If you are interested in addressing the high costs of electricity and gas, then you must be aware of the fact that this current fossil energy crisis, sparked by the Trump administration’s war against Iran, is an extreme manifestation of the risks of dependence on fossil fuels. The benefits of a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy (renewable energy that the Trump administration has relentlessly attacked, further increasing costs for consumers) are tremendous. If you are deeply concerned about the rapid and unregulated construction of data centers, you know that it carries enormous risks to communities related to climate, water, pollution, health and electricity costs. And it’s abundantly clear that the Trump administration’s corruption, lies about climate science, and massive donations to fossil fuel polluters are leaving us all to bear the high costs of climate damage, while big corporations and the president’s inner circle reap huge profits.

Here’s another reality: Regardless of politics, climate change is here, and science shows it is rapidly worsening with the imminent 1.5°C overshoot of global warming. Communities are already experiencing deadly and costly climate impacts, including extreme heat waves, catastrophic wildfires, unprecedented flooding, droughts, accelerated sea level rise, intense ocean heat, irreversible loss of glaciers and ice sheets, stresses on critical ecosystems, and more. These impacts are playing out in people’s daily lives: harming their health, destroying homes, livelihoods and critical infrastructure, increasing insurance premiums, hitting businesses, putting pressure on water supplies, and threatening food security and affordability.

Climate change and clean energy are pocket issues. They are much more than that, of course. And climate change doesn’t care if you live in a red state or a blue state. (One may wonder if that is even a relevant framework after an election that upended all conventional wisdom about “red” and “blue” dichotomies.)

that 120^th What Congress can do on climate action

It is important to note that we will soon have a Congress in which a majority accepts the scientific evidence on climate change. (Yes, I also wish we could take that for granted in 2026, but not in American politics, sadly.) That’s an important start and means we can advocate for policymakers to legislate based on the facts, rather than getting stuck fighting misinformation and lies.

Here’s what this seismic “change election” could mean for action on climate change, some warnings about what probably won’t change immediately, and why we’ll have to keep fighting.

1. Congress must exercise its authority over budget allocations. That includes ensuring robust funding for climate science, clean energy and climate resilience; federal agencies, including NOAA, FEMA, and EPA; data and tools; as well as research scholarships. Instead of approving the Trump administration’s damaging budget and personnel cuts, as the last Congress did, it is time for Congress to defend the life-saving science that people need and that taxpayers have invested in.
2. Congress should re-legislate to prioritize the public good. It should reverse the Trump administration’s damaging attacks on climate and clean energy policies, including its undermining of investments made through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act and the Inflation Reduction Act and its illegal attacks on offshore wind projects.
3. Congress must exercise its oversight authority to hold the Trump administration accountable. It must hold hearings and investigate and gather information about the Trump administration’s numerous attacks on science, including its mass firings of federal scientists, cancellation of scientific grants, distortion of facts and evidence, and the incredible damage it has caused to people’s health, lives, and economies. A transparent accounting of these destructive actions is a crucial step towards the renewal and progress of science and science-based policies, which many scientists and scientific organizations like UCS fight for. Oversight should include examining whether Trump administration officials have violated the law or failed to fulfill the mission of the agencies they are entrusted to lead and, if so, whether they should be charged.
4. Congress should stop the Trump administration’s efforts to prop up polluting fossil fuels. including its refusal to implement and enforce health-based pollution standards and direct gifts to polluting industries. Accelerating the clean energy push in the United States and rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels, along with similar actions by other countries, is essential to limiting the 1.5°C overshoot. My colleague Jeff Deyette will soon publish a blog post about how the state election results will also help drive clean energy progress.
5. Congress must help communities reeling from climate disasters. It must stand up to the Trump administration’s attacks on FEMA and ensure that disaster preparedness and recovery are well-funded and that FEMA is committed to meeting its responsibilities to work alongside states in responding to major disasters. And it is no longer enough to react to disasters after the fact, when the science is clear that we live in a dangerously altered climate regime. It is time to invest in true, proactive climate resilience, available to all communities equitably. Climate resilience must be an integral part of Congressional priorities to help protect people, ecosystems, and the economy from rapidly worsening climate realities.
6. Congress must hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for their long-standing obstruction of climate action and their deception, which are one of the main reasons we find ourselves in the dire situation we face now. Congress must also rein in the Trump administration’s continued spread of misinformation about the fossil fuel industry. My colleague Kathy Mulvey will soon be publishing a blog post on what is urgently needed on this front.

The fight ahead

We will have to continue fighting in court to hold the Trump administration accountable for flagrantly flouting the law. We have already won a major victory in a lawsuit in which the administration was found to be violating the Federal Advisory Committee Act by secretly creating a ‘Climate Task Force’ filled with climate opponents to draft a false scientific report, which the EPA then used to justify its proposal to gut the hazardous finding. We have also filed a lawsuit against the administration for repealing the Danger Determination, contrary to the law, science and the public interest.

On the international front, the Trump administration has shamefully exited the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, and that will not change while it is in power. As I write from COP31 in Türkiye, I am keenly aware of the administration’s abandonment of global climate cooperation; It is crucial that the rest of the world moves forward regardless of the great risks. There is a real risk that an embattled Trump administration will double down on its authoritarian methods and continue to find new ways to disrupt global climate progress and multilateral institutions. But Congress now has the power and responsibility to keep this reckless administration in check and ensure it is held accountable, both domestically and on the world stage.

“Elections for change” come loaded with the hopes and dreams of many. As climate justice advocates, we know that policymakers have put off taking meaningful climate action for too long, and those failures are putting us all at profound risk. However, wealthy fossil fuel interests, Big Tech companies, and other powerful entities continue to obstruct and delay action, still have too much influence over both parties in Congress, and we can expect their harmful tactics to increase. So now it is our responsibility to fight for what is coming, to make our shared dreams come true. Because those dreams of a safer and more just world for future generations of young people must come true.

Courtesy of The Equation, USC, by Rachel Cleetus.