A common argument about climate change is that fossil fuels are good because they have fueled economic growth that makes most people better off overall. And to some extent that’s true, but it’s also an extremely limited perspective.
It is now quite obvious that the growth they are driving comes at a very high cost that we have only recently begun to bear, in the form of damage and disruption from extreme weather events. Because things like sea level rise are expected to continue for centuries even if we reach net zero, it’s difficult to estimate how costly that growth will ultimately be.
But this perspective is also limited: we now have better ways to fuel our growth – ways that are now less polluting and do not leave our descendants with a carbon debt that will be difficult to manage.
Open or closed?
In 2013, I learned a metaphor about changing the relationship between economic growth and fossil fuel use: opening a pair of scissors. For decades, GDP growth and carbon emissions were linked like two blades of closed scissors. The idea was that we needed to open it up: continue GDP growth (ideally in a way that improves citizens’ lives) but decouple it from carbon emissions.
An example of this was Sweden at the time. In 1996, a gradual decline in the country’s CO2 emissions began, which continues to this day. Total emissions fell by a third from the most recent peak in 1996 and by more than half from the peak in 1970. However, GDP continued to grow. At the time, the data only covered 2011, but the World Bank now shows that its GDP has more than doubled since 1996.
In 2013 one could question whether the Swedish example really represented a long-term transition. But with 30 years of data, it is now very clear that Sweden has opened the scissors.
A bigger question was whether his example was applicable elsewhere. Sweden was fortunate to have abundant hydropower and an established base of nuclear reactors. And its economy, while sizeable, is not as diversified as some larger countries. Like the United States, for example.
