Last week, the Atlantic hurricane season reached its traditional peak, around September 10, and there was not a tropical wave in sight, let alone a storm or hurricane.
That is remarkable. Typically, this is the time of year when sea surface temperatures are warmest in the tropics, and if the atmosphere is favorable, tropical systems should be calm. But this year, the main region where most tropical systems develop is clogged with Saharan dust and wind shear.
Nobody complains. Landfalling hurricanes are extremely destructive to coastal areas and can cause significant rainfall inland areas. Even offshore storms in the Gulf of Mexico can send energy prices soaring – the last thing needed this year.
This has never happened before
Nevertheless, the silence is historic.
Beginning in 1944, the United States began monitoring the Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf, Caribbean Sea, and North Atlantic, using aircraft to detect hurricanes. A hurricane has formed every year since September 11th, dating back to 1944. The most recent “first” Atlantic hurricanes occurred on this day in 2002 with Gustav and in 2013 with Humberto.
Atlantic hurricane records officially date back to 1851, although older records are less reliable because observations of storms at sea were based on reports from ships. So some storms were missed. If we trace the hurricane record back to 1851, at least one Atlantic hurricane is still recorded every year. But in 1941, the first hurricane did not form until September 17th. This is the date of last first hurricane in the Atlantic since records began.
I want to tell you that the Atlantic will not produce a hurricane until the end of Thursday. The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a single disturbance in the Atlantic, but estimates the chance of that system developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next two days to be “near zero” percent. The likelihood of a hurricane ever occurring is slim.
