In 2015, all but two countries agreed to make efforts to prevent global temperatures from rising 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Since then, most of the world has largely viewed what they signed as ambitious, and one of the largest emitters (the US) has alternately withdrawn and recommitted to the agreement. The planet has now responded as expected to the ever-increasing CO2 emissions and appears to be practically at the 1.5° limit.
On Wednesday, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) acknowledged this reality for the first time, admitting that the goal of keeping warming below 1.5°C was no longer realistic. Instead, the new targets focus on minimizing both the duration and the amount by which we exceed this limit. Achieving this will require both dramatic emissions cuts now and the removal of hundreds of gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere before the century is out.
Bow to the inevitable
Depending on which baseline you use to determine pre-industrial temperatures and which reconstruction of global temperatures you rely on, the world is either very close to the 1.5° mark or has already passed it. The current El Niño event, which appears to be exceptionally strong, will almost certainly mean that we’ve been thinking about it, whatever records you choose.
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