South Korean market research company SNE Research has analyzed the dynamics and market share distribution of the electric vehicle battery market outside China. The key finding: the total capacity of these batteries increased to 426.7 GWh from January to September. Thus, the market grew by 24.7 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. The clear beneficiaries are the Chinese battery manufacturers.
“The combined market share of the six Chinese companies, including [CATL, BYD, Gotion, SVOLT, CALB and EVE] increased by 13.3 percent, from 43.1 to 56.4 percent, surpassing half of the market outside China,” writes SNE Research. Only CATL and BYD account for 44.5 percent of the market. In the same period in 2023, this figure was still 36.7 percent.
SNE Research specifically analyzed sales of batteries for battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and other hybrids, highlighting that regional demand developed differently. Korean analysts note that demand in Europe and Asia offset current weakness in North America. Curiously, China itself also appears to be faltering. While SNE Research certifies a growth of 24.7 percent for the global market excluding China, the increase including China is only 19.7 percent. Overall momentum is therefore slowing in the People’s Republic.
The following figures are available from the manufacturers themselves: The three Korean manufacturers – LG Energy Solution, SK On and Samsung SDI – contributed a total of 113.0 GWh worldwide (excluding China) from January to September, a decrease of 13.5 percent compared to the previous year. Their combined market share fell sharply by 11.7 percentage points, from 38.2 percent to 26.5 percent. According to SNE Research, business slumped especially in North America, where the trio’s installed battery capacity was almost halved, from 56.1 to 28.1 GWh. In Europe, however, there was a slight increase (from 58.7 to 63.0 GWh), as well as in Asia (from 13.1 to 17.5 GWh).
But let’s go step by step. After the first nine months, CATL once again leads the ranking. Outside China, the company reached a volume of 143.7 GWh, which corresponds to exactly one third of the market. Compared to the previous year, CATL grew by 47 percent. Its market share increased 5.1 percentage points to 33.7 percent. For Europe, SNE Research statistics show a 35 percent increase from 71.5 to 96.8 GWh, while in Asia, the volume doubled to 27.1 GWh.
According to analysts, LG Power Solution It maintains second place with 69.8 GWh (-4.9 percent year-on-year). Its business in Europe and Asia evolved positively. In Europe, it increased by 13 percent to 38.6 GWh, and in Asia by 49 percent to 11.1 GWh. However, this was not enough to offset the sharp decline in North America (-45 percent year-on-year, from 29.9 to 16.5 GWh). LGES’s market share fell significantly by 5.1 percentage points, from 21.5 percent to 16.4 percent.
It is followed by BYD, with 45.9 GWh (+67 percent year-on-year), in third place. The company’s market share grew from 8.0 percent to 10.8 percent. According to SNE Research, this growth was spread across Europe (17.4 GWh, +67 percent year-over-year), Asia (14.8 GWh, +41 percent year-over-year) and South America (7.1 GWh, +136 percent year-over-year).
Panasonic is in fourth place after the first nine months of the year with 35.6 GWh (-0.8 percent year-on-year). “Tesla’s volumes in North America supported its results, but growth was well below that of the market outside China,” the authors said. Panasonic’s market share fell 2.1 percentage points to 8.4 percent. Looking further back, the Panasonic example particularly illustrates how much the market has changed in recent years:
Meanwhile, fifth-placed SK On posted significant losses and its volume fell to 28.2 GWh (-18 percent year-on-year). Its market share plummeted from 10.0% to 6.6 percent. “The company supplies batteries to Hyundai Motor Group, Ford, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, among others, but its use decreased by 46.7 percent in North America and 2.2 percent in Europe,” the study states.
VW partner Gotion grew by 153.8 percent to 17.6 GWh, thus overtaking Samsung SDI, which fell to seventh place. Samsung SDI recorded just 15.0 GWh (-34.4 percent year-over-year), the steepest drop among the top 10. Its market share fell from 6.7 percent to 3.5 percent. While sales in Europe remained stable at 9.4 GWh, Samsung SDI experienced a debacle in North America (-66 percent year-on-year, from 12.0 to 4.1 GWh).
The top 10 is completed by three second-tier Chinese suppliers: SVOLT, CALB and EVE Energy. SVOLT grew 102 percent to 13.1 GWh, CALB 88.5 percent to 10.6 GWh and EVE Energy achieved a massive 215 percent increase to 9.5 GWh.
In summary, it can be concluded that the three Korean manufacturers and Panasonic had to give up market share in the global market excluding China, while the six Chinese companies mentioned expanded their volume in Europe steadily and rapidly. An important factor here is cell chemistry: “LFP’s market share outside China increased by 11.9 percent, from 15.8 percent to 27.7 percent, reflecting the same trend. In North America,” SNE research analysts stated. This is because it is mainly Chinese manufacturers that are leading the way in LFP technology. In Europe, LFP adoption is increasing, “mainly in entry-level models, making price competitiveness a key criterion in supplier selection,” they added.
Based on the data, the study authors believe that regional policy frameworks and demand diversification will mainly determine the competitiveness of suppliers. Some manufacturers are increasingly shifting to stationary storage batteries for greater diversification, particularly in North America. As far as Europe is concerned, analysts consider the automobile package and the incentive associated with the so-called phase-out of combustion engines, as well as possible “Made in Europe” standards, to be a decisive influencing factor.
sneresearch.com
