A low-pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to soon develop into a tropical storm, and the latest forecast models indicate there is a good chance it will develop into a hurricane.
Normally, a hurricane forming in early October wouldn’t be particularly noteworthy. However, the development of a hurricane this year would be a big deal – because nothing like that has happened yet.
In modern hurricane recording – an era stretching back to roughly World War II, when there were reconnaissance aircraft and later continuous satellite coverage – there has never been an Atlantic season without a hurricane, and no season has passed so late without one forming.
There were two years, 1907 and 1914, in which no hurricanes were recorded. However, this does not necessarily mean that there were no hurricanes. Before airplanes flew across the Atlantic, our records almost certainly missed hurricanes over the open ocean.
The Atlantic window is closing
The Atlantic hurricane season nominally runs from June 1st to November 30th. However, the vast majority of hurricanes form between mid-August and mid-October, so the window for a hurricane to occur this season is closing.
The Atlantic tropics have been exceptionally quiet this year, largely due to a strengthening El Niño that is expected to become historically strong. Typically, El Niño produces strong wind shear over the tropical Atlantic that disrupts the organization of tropical systems. That was definitely the case this year, as by most metrics it was the quietest season yet.
