Unlike the pandemic-related decline in 2020, this one was not due to a widespread decline in energy demand. Although demand increased, the growth in electric vehicles and solar and wind energy accounted for almost 70 percent of the growth. Electric vehicles can only account for about 20 percent of the resulting drop in oil emissions, meaning the majority is due to high prices.
A simple way to break down emissions is to link them to economic output. Using a country’s gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption per unit of GDP, and carbon emissions per unit of energy, you can calculate total carbon emissions. GDP could rise, but if this is due to less energy-intensive industries or a cleaner energy system, carbon emissions may not rise with it.
Between 2019 and 2025, 59 countries reduced their emissions despite economic growth, although global emissions increased by 0.8 percent per year. The researchers estimated that the increase would have been significantly higher, at 1.9 percent per year, if economic growth had not been accompanied by growth in electric vehicles and solar and wind energy.
Close, but not there yet
Given the International Monetary Fund’s forecast for GDP through 2028, researchers also extrapolated these trends into the future. We therefore assume that global fossil fuel emissions will continue to increase. This also includes the current year – without the oil price shock, we would also see an increase in emissions in 2026.
Total annual fossil CO2 Emissions (top left) and then coal (top right), oil (bottom left) and natural gas emissions (bottom right). Extrapolated trends in gray, yellow and blue, with the actual value for 2026 represented by a red dot.
Photo credit: Le Quéré et al./Nature Climate Change
Total annual fossil CO2 Emissions (top left) and then coal (top right), oil (bottom left) and natural gas emissions (bottom right). Extrapolated trends in gray, yellow and blue, with the actual value for 2026 represented by a red dot.
Photo credit: Le Quéré et al./Nature Climate Change
So while we could If we are close to peak emissions, we are probably not there yet. The growth of electric vehicles and renewable energy offsets most, but not all, of the increase in emissions. That would just require a little more juice.
The researchers write: “If further acceleration in the deployment of clean technologies can be supported over time, there will be sustained peaks and declines in global CO2 Emissions could be a few years away.”
Nature Climate Change, 2026. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02821-8 (About DOIs).
