France: Verdict comes – Can Le Pen become president in 2027?

The Paris Court of Appeal will decide today on guilt and punishment Marine Le Pen – and thus sets the course for the French presidential election next year. The big question for Le Pen’s right-wing nationalist party is whether the 57-year-old can even run for election after the ruling in the case about possible fictitious employment. In the first instance, the court revoked her right to stand for election with immediate effect for five years.

The court plans to announce its decision at 1:30 p.m. At 8 p.m. Le Pen wants to announce whether she will change her mind France applied for the highest state office.

That’s what the process is about

The trial in Paris revolves around allegations of embezzlement of funds. Between 2004 and 2016, members of Le Pen’s party are said to have received money for parliamentary assistants in the European Parliament, at least in part for the Front National party (now: National Rally) would have worked. Le Pen had denied responsibility for this in court. In addition to the right-wing leader, the party and eleven other defendants are on trial.

The following scenarios are conceivable in the verdict for Le Pen.

She is acquitted:

That is considered unlikely. But if that were to happen, Le Pen could theoretically run. But if the charges were to be appealed, things would look difficult for Le Pen. There are two reasons for this: Firstly, the court of cassation then responsible has announced that it will make its decision before the presidential election. If it overturns the acquittal and orders a new trial, there may not be enough time for another verdict, but it could harm Le Pen politically.

On the other hand, there is a debate in legal circles about what will happen to the provisional withdrawal of her right to vote if she is appealed. In such a case, the judgment is not legally binding. However, the provisional application from the first instance could still apply in the event of an appeal.

She is sentenced to prison, but is not banned from voting:

In this case, Le Pen could potentially run. However, if the sentence is not very short or is completely suspended, running for office would hardly be practical. With an electronic ankle bracelet, Le Pen would be bound to strict exit times. An election campaign characterized by numerous deadlines would be hardly conceivable under these conditions and would therefore not be an option for Le Pen, as she already said.

She will be deprived of her right to vote for two years:

With such a ruling, Le Pen could potentially risk running for office. The first round of elections is considered the decisive date for the right to be elected to public office. Since Le Pen has already been deprived of the right to stand as a candidate since the end of March 2025 and the election will take place next April, she would have served the sentence by then.

However, some restrictions remain: If Le Pen is sentenced to prison in the same breath, running for office would hardly be practical in this case either. If they or the prosecution file an appeal and the immediate application of the exclusion from the election does not apply, they could be excluded by a ruling from the Court of Cassation shortly before the election.

She will be deprived of her right to vote for more than two years:

In this case, even if no immediate application of ineligibility is imposed, it will likely be effectively impossible for Le Pen to run. It could, of course, appeal and hope that the provisional application of the penalty imposed in the first instance does not take effect. But that is not certain. She would also risk that the Court of Cassation would confirm the verdict before the election and thus be thrown out of the race in the short term.

If the court decides that a long-standing ban on being elected to public office must be applied immediately, it would be the end of Le Pen’s dreams of running for office in 2027.

That’s why the other parties are also looking at the decision

The right-wing nationalists are expected to have a good chance of making it to the decisive runoff vote in the presidential election. If Le Pen does not run, Rassemblement National will send 30-year-old party leader Jordan Bardella into the race. Both are clearly leading in the polls, at least for the first round of elections, ahead of possible candidates from other camps. However, both their image and their actual prospects of success are assessed quite differently.

© dpa-infocom, dpa:260707-930-344577/1