Canada and the EU are moving away on vehicle emissions

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J. Wellington Wimpy, famous for the Popeye comics, had a favorite expression. It went like this: “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a cheeseburger today.” As the Earth gets hotter, most countries have committed to reducing their climate-warming emissions by 2030, 2050, 2077, or 2100. Their position papers and high-level speeches are full of passionate promises and flowery language, but their actions rarely match their pious protests.

This week, Canada and the EU walked back their existing commitments to reduce motor vehicle emissions. Oh, they still promise to fix it, but not now, while political turmoil is shaking their economies. The promises will be kept (make no mistake about it), but not right now. They need respite to address the high prices resulting from the United States’ failed attempt to wipe Iran off the map and address far-right movements that threaten to topple their governments. There are always many reasons to delay, delay, and delay some more.

Emissions freeze in Canada

According to the Canadian website Electric Autonomy, Canada’s government this week announced a freeze on its vehicle emissions mandates for three years, while also promising to meet its goal of 75 percent of new car sales being electric by 2035. That and three crazy people will give you a donut at Tim Horton’s.

The current standard is 172 grams of greenhouse gas emissions per mile (107 grams/km) and will remain at the current level until the end of 2029. Thereafter, God willing and the creek does not rise, the standard will begin to decrease each year until it reaches 74 grams per mile (46 grams/km).

A joint statement from Premier Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford said: “Maintaining the fleet average performance standard will provide manufacturers with near-term flexibility at a time when the industry faces trade-related pressures. It will also provide the ability to generate greenhouse gas credits for use in later years, while continuing to improve emissions performance and fuel economy over time.” In addition to the revised emissions schedule, the federal and Ontario governments are investing $2.5 billion over two years to support capital projects by Canadian automakers.

A mixed reaction

Reaction to the new policy has been mixed. Climate activists are disappointed to see any rollback to existing emissions standards as the new rules will undermine the transition to electric cars. Industries hoped the announcement would bring a sense of direction, clarity and certainty to the future. In any case, Chinese manufacturers are waiting in the wings, as Canada has opened the door to importing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles with just a 6.1 percent tariff.

“[T]he decision to pause any increase in regulation until the 2030 model year puts significantly more pressure on the final years of the policy and could undermine future success,” Clean Energy Canada said in a statement. “The unexpected delay will impact the potential benefits of greater adoption of electric vehicles, including thousands in fuel cost savings for households and up to $21 billion in investments in the charging industry. At the same time, Canadian communities will face increased health costs and the impacts of worse air quality.”

The Pembina Institute, a British Columbia-based clean energy advocacy group, took issue with the new policy, saying it will make it virtually impossible for Canada to meet its electric vehicle goals. “Earlier this year, the federal government promised tougher vehicle pollution standards starting in 2027, but now they are pushing that back to 2029. This makes their goal of 75 per cent electric vehicles by 2035 nearly impossible, delaying progress in providing Canadians with more affordable vehicle options.”

Canadian automakers are quite pleased with the longer timeline the federal government is offering to increase sales of electric vehicles, believing it will help protect Canadian jobs and investments. “We welcome the measures to support Canada’s automotive industry during this challenging period,” Brian Kingston, executive director of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association, said in a statement. “Today’s announcement is an important step toward a more predictable, competitive and achievable regulatory environment necessary to protect jobs, production and investment in the Canadian automotive sector.

Doug Ford acknowledged that the midterm elections in the United States, along with the approach of the middle of the worst presidency in history, could be turning points. However, they are unlikely to undo changes that are already reshaping cross-border trade. “As we stand here today, it is clear that Canada’s relationship with the United States has permanently changed. No matter what happens in the midterm elections, no matter who sits in the White House, we are not going to go back to the way things were, and we need to plan accordingly,” he said.

Changes for the EU

In Europe, things are infinitely more complex, due to the need to achieve consensus between representatives of multiple political parties and 27 countries. Automakers are also asking for more time to transition to electric vehicles. A few weeks ago, France and Germany reached an agreement that moved slightly away from the EU’s zero-emissions policy by 2035, but that was only part of the process.

Now Germany’s Handelsblatt reports that a consensus reached by several centrist parties would allow the 100 percent reduction target to be reduced to just 87.5 percent, as long as manufacturers use at least 7.5 percent green steel to build their vehicles. Attentive readers will note that that means the EV sales target will be 95 percent by 2035 instead of 100 percent.

The next step is for the Environment Committee to vote in early November, Der Spiegel reports, with the plenary session likely to take place in December. To push through the package, it must first be approved by the EU Parliament, followed by member states in the EU Council. A simple majority is sufficient in the EU Parliament, while in the EU Council a so-called “qualified majority” is required. This means approval from at least 15 countries representing at least 65 percent of the EU population.

Phew! With all the rigmarole required to establish a final policy, it is surprising that the EU ever manages to get anything done. The bottom line is that short-term concerns often interfere with long-term commitments. No one would suggest that major industries should be forced to close. There are too many people who depend on them for employment for that to happen. But the climate emergency will not wait.

In the words of Paul Simon: “The closer to your destination, the further you slide.” That’s exactly what’s happening. Regardless of the justifications offered, the Earth cannot wait. There will be no industries, no jobs, and no customers once the Sixth Extinction event begins in earnest, which may happen much sooner than anyone expects.