Russia plans to attack Poland – USA warns of NATO provocation
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USA warns Poland: Russia is apparently planning an attack on NATO territory with drones, missiles or soldiers from Kaliningrad.
A Russian attack on Poland could be imminent: The US has warned that Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on Polish soil to test NATO’s resolve. Polish critical infrastructure could be attacked with missiles and drones, or Russian soldiers could cross the border into NATO territory.
Washington has warned Warsaw several times about the plot, sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki told the Polish news portal Onet communicated. This portal is part of the Global Reporters Network and is owned by us The Telegraph to Axel Springer. The aim of the Russian provocation is to inflame tensions and force Western allies to suspend their support for Ukraine.
Russia is probably planning an attack on Poland: Planned scenarios for provocations
The campaign could begin within a few months. Polish security circles also do not rule out a more conventional attack, such as a smaller ground advance by Russian soldiers across NATO’s eastern flank.
According to security sources from Onet Provocation scenarios could include a drone attack on critical infrastructure such as power plants or simulated air strikes. These would force Poland to activate its air defense systems. A Polish intelligence official said that in the most extreme case there could be a “hybrid attack in the border region.”
The same source said an armed attack involving Russian or Belarusian soldiers was conceivable. This could be portrayed by Russia as an accidental drift into Polish territory due to a GPS failure, or as a dubious rescue mission to recover a helicopter with technical failure.
Russia is counting on Poland being forced by the USA to negotiate with Russia or Belarus instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers and reacting decisively. Polish sources said so Onet. From Moscow’s perspective, a scenario in which the Russians withdraw from Poland as a result of such negotiations, rather than because they were militarily forced to do so, would be considered a success.
Possible political demands from Moscow
An end to Western support for Ukraine could even be a key Russian demand in such talks in return for a withdrawal from Poland. The US is “systematically informing Poland about new Russian plans for a conventional attack on the eastern flank of NATO, from which Poland is by no means exempt,” said a source close to the Polish president.
The ambassador of one of Poland’s allies in NATO also confirmed that a provocation in one of the Baltic states and/or Poland posed a serious risk. A third source in the Polish Ministry of Defense agrees. A fourth Baltic security source confirmed to The Telegraphthat corresponding plans would be discussed in Moscow.
Russia may later try to claim that the provocation was carried out by Ukraine. Any Russian ground attack could be staged either from the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, where nuclear weapons are stationed, or from Belarus to the east.
Limited Russian military options
Such methods are Russia’s only realistic means of staging a provocation. Because its forces are tied up in Ukraine, Moscow lacks the ability to wage an all-out war against NATO allies. While Poland remains a staunch security ally of Ukraine, relations have deteriorated in recent months due to differing views on the history of World War II and the two countries’ competing agricultural sectors.
There are fears that Moscow could try to deepen this divide. The Telegraph also learned that a recent naval exercise in Latvia involving the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps reminded Moscow that any attack on the eastern flank would be a de facto attack on American troops.
In a worst-case scenario for NATO, Russia’s goal would be to undermine Polish sovereignty by attacking Poland. That could expose NATO as a paper tiger and end Western support for Ukraine – all without triggering a conventional war with the alliance.
Signals of deterrence from Poland and NATO
A member of the leadership of the Polish Ministry of Defense confirmed to Onet the possibility of a Russian provocation. However, it noted that Poland had already conducted exercises designed to warn Moscow of a devastating NATO response. From Moscow’s perspective, a provocation against Poland would be a better option than one against one of the Baltic states, European security sources said.
Onets Sources stressed that a Russian provocation would not resemble a “classic” or conventional war and that Moscow had not yet fully committed to such a step.
The Telegraph learned that NATO could respond to any Russian provocation with direct attacks on Kaliningrad, which was mentioned as a possible target by the head of the German Air Force, Holger Neumann. Last month, the head of the air force told the newspaper that Germany would defend “every inch” of NATO territory, including Poland, if forced to act defensively.
Possible goals in the event of a conflict
He named Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg, where key naval units are based, the Kola Peninsula, where Moscow is amassing nuclear weapons, and the Black Sea – home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet – as potential targets in the event of a conflict. (This article by Witold Jurasz, James Rothwell and Joe Barnes was created in cooperation with telegraph.co.uk)